SLR
coastal Sea Level Rise — projected increase in ocean levels due to climate change, directly threatening Lahaina’s coast.
Fire is the acute threat; sea-level rise is the chronic constraint defining spatial limits of recovery. The coastline is not a fixed line but a moving zone of hazard. The Hawai’i Sea Level Rise Vulnerability and Adaptation Report projects 3.2 feet of rise by mid-century under current emissions trajectories. Mapping these projections against Lahaina’s coastal zone using the SLR-XA model — incorporating passive flooding, annual high-wave flooding, and coastal erosion — defines the seaward boundary of the recovery framework.
At 3.2 feet of rise, approximately 3,130 acres of West Maui coastal land face chronic flooding. Within Lahaina, 780 structures — many surviving the fire — sit within the exposure area. An estimated 1,600 residents face displacement from flooding independent of fire-related damage. Approximately 2.2 miles of major roadway, including segments of Front Street, would experience regular inundation.
The West Maui Community Plan, adopted December 2021, establishes policy framework for this exposure. Goal 2.1.5 designates the SLR-XA zone for preservation as open space, prohibiting new residential construction within the projected flood boundary. The Managed Retreat Revolving Fund — funded by 20 percent of the Transient Accommodations Tax — provides capital to acquire vulnerable properties. In 2025, the County Council approved up to $5 million from this fund for the Lahaina Community Land Trust to acquire shoreline properties. The coastal buffer responds directly to this data.